China’s biggest challenges in next decades

Among all socio-economic challenges, resulting demographic pattern will perturb Chinese society. Most populous country in the world since several centuries, China was suffering from starvation and poverty till 1980s. Deng’s one child policy and economic reform within communist regime yielded good dividends economically and on population control in next 30-40 years. Lead time in understanding impact on population growth is quite larger than economist thought. The prediction further aggravated by impact of technological invasion and globalization on demography during the period.  Population of younger people tends to reduce, while old get increased because of better health and economic conditions. The government  has to strategize how to serve and manage issues of old people  and hence one child policy may be required to revisit. Even if the policy is revised today, the expected result will be yielded after 2-4 decades. No overnight results can be expected. This (2-4 decades) is too long period in cut throat competition of current era. In spite of political stability and technological advancement in China, the government has to constantly monitor the impact to re-strategize incidental and ancillary policies. Population policy have complex interdependency. This process will be unique and hence only Chinese economist and politicians can address it.  Trade war with US will have long term impact on Chinese economy and demography. It will be very interesting to see, how the government tackle this unique challenge!

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